The Deep Sleeper Strategies in 2025 Rookie Drafts

Maybe you find yourself in a position where you only have a late 3rd round pick or a few 4th rounders to cash in at your rookie draft. Is there any hope that you land a player who can make an immediate impact? I would say there’s a small chance to do so if you know what to look for. I’ll break it down below!

Athletic Tight Ends on Ascending Offenses

Recent Case Studies: Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft

Sam LaPorta was not a first round rookie pick in most leagues. In my draft 2 years ago he slipped to the early 3rd! While Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer went at the one-two turn… yikes. Tight End is rough sledding no matter the format you play in and there’s not much you can do unless you want to pay up for one post breakout like Trey McBride or Brock Bowers.

In hindsight, LaPorta found himself on the Lions as they were trending up towards their offensive juggernaut status. Tucker Kraft found himself in a crowded TE room with Luke Musgrave picked 1 round prior to him and a hoard of mid WRs to compete with. But Jordan Love had demonstrated competence as an NFL passer. Kraft took a step forward last year and now is a backend dynasty TE1 where Laporta sits as a mid TE1.

The extra maddening thing about tight ends is they have historically taken a few years to breakout. That fact keeps Kyle Pitts truthers outside his window with a boombox extended overhead. This is gonna be his year! Just kidding, I’ve been burned 3 years in a row by Mr. Pitts and will not be going back to the well on that one.

The actionable advice from this section would be to target Tight ends that go to offenses with competent QB play and a path to targets. Since we are talking about deeper sleepers here you, the TEs under consideration will likely need to see 3rd-5th round NFL draft capital for relevancy. I wouldn’t reach on any TE taken past the 5th round. It’s an added bonus if the Tight End tests well athletically as that holds some predictive value for fantasy success. The hit rates are low on late round tight ends but landing one can set your team up for success!

This year if Terrance Ferguson, Elijah Arroyo or Harold Fannin Jr. find themselves drafted to an ascending offense I will pull the trigger on them late. I have a 2nd round grade on Fannin regardless of landing spot assuming decent draft capital.

Runningbacks entering ambiguous backfield with inefficient competition

Recent Case Studies: Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown

Sorry for the rambling title of this section. But basically if a RB enters backfield where the lead back is not producing with efficiency or there’s no clear 1A in the backfield then you should strongly consider drafting that back if the talent is there.

The above 3 backs burst onto the scene in large part due to the inefficient backs they were competing with. Chase Brown (while not a rookie last year) did benefit from a Zack Moss injury but Bucky Irving flat out outproduced Rachaad White on a per touch basis. Tracy contended with Devin Singletary and quickly proved himself as the more dynamic and explosive runner of the two. In hindsight, last year’s rookie runningback class was rough. I held out hope for Blake Corum, Trey Benson and Jaylen Warren but all 3 of them languished behind ridiculously efficient/bellcow runningbacks. James Conner might start showing his age and Achane will not be everydown back so there remains hope… but those narratives could have been forseen by savvy dynasty players. If your favorite back in this year’s class gets drafted as a clear backup check the yards per carry stats or better yet the PFF run grades of the back in front of him. If it’s been trending downward then the rookie back might get a chance to take hold of the backfield sooner rather than later.

One of my larger disappointments dynasty wise was Kimani Vidal failing to crack the chargers RB rotation. JK Dobbins balled out before getting injured (again) and Vidal was beat out by Gus Edwards for meaningful touches down the stretch. I can’t say in hindsight why this is the case. There’s no real advanced metric I can point to that predicted Vidal not being an impact player at this level. Sometimes a young rb can enter an ambiguous backfield with poor competition and still fail to make an impact

In this year’s loaded class, I’m checking the depth charts of all the runningbacks I draft in round 3 and beyond when I’m looking for an instant impact rookie and doing my due diligence to select the ones with the talent to be impact players.

Quarterbacks

Do a rain dance ? Pray to God? If you predicted Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott back in the day then you are a better scout than me. I won’t pretend to have the secret formula to cracking the QB code. You’ll likely need a pick in the first 2 rounds to secure an NFL signal caller with a path to fantasy relevancy barring injury or exceptional circumstances unfolding.

I dedicated a few earlier articles dedicated to WRs in this year’s class and my methodology. Feel Free to check those out!

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