I attended a data science conference a few years ago and just so happened to stumble upon a great lecture. Allen P. Downey was presenting on “Why old is better than new” and he introduced various statistical concepts like reliability engineering, survival curves, hazard functions and expected remaining lifetimes. My ears perked up when I heard about expected remaining lifetimes.

I was sitting in that room thinking about dynasty fantasy football.

I am not an expert in how this concept applies to manufacturing and I don’t claim to have a PhD in statistics. However, I think there are some nuggets of wisdom that can be extracted from looking at NFL RBs in the context of these ideas.

The counterintuitive thesis was that in a surprising number of systems, we should expect a used part to last longer than a new one. There becomes a point where lasting a certain period of time means that something would statistically outlive a brand new counterpart.

The base example he used was a well documented study where lightbulbs were observed and flipped on at the same time but burned for varying durations. The term “superbulb” was coined and it referred to lightbulb that burned brightly far longer than the average bulb.

The researchers had no way of knowing which bulbs would be “superbulbs” from the beginning. But there was a point where if they lasted a certain number of months then they would statistically outlive newer lightbulbs. Identifying that point with fantasy RBs might be a fun analysis but the rest of this article will delve into understanding the dynasty value of rookie RBs vs proven vets using Jadarian Price and Derrick Henry as the representatives from their cohorts.

In dynasty markets, the community often falls into the trap that new is always better than old. A younger player has a lot of years left in front of him to put up fantasy points for your squad. The 20, 21 or 22 year old unproven runningback is such an alluring pick because of the theoretical, unrealized ceiling outcome.

What we often forget is that a young player is a mystery box. Like in Mario Kart, when you drive through one of those item boxes and get a random item to wield.

You might get a bullet bill that launches your fantasy squad forward like Jahmyr Gibbs. But you also could get a banana peel like Kaleb Johnson… who may or may not still have hope from a fantasy perspective (probably not). If you forgot what a bullet bill is then here’s a refresher.

What is easy to overlook is that rookies and young players have to earn snaps, and then play well enough in those snaps to continue earning snaps. They have to play better than the veteran ahead of them on the depth chart to surpass him. And even then, they may have to contend with coaching that insists on a timeshare regardless of efficiency metrics (see Vrabel, Mike).

So how does old is better than new come into play here? Stay with me for an extended analogy.

NFL running backs are human beings who collectively have been devalued by the modern day NFL. Superstar runningbacks like Bijan, Gibbs and CMC might be shaking up that narrative and Jeremiyah Love getting drafted 3rd overall is also a sign that RBs are on an upward trajectory. RBs are important… but they are also like light bulbs.

They provide utility to NFL teams and fantasy managers. How long they are going to provide that value is a mystery.

Ideally, a lightbulb lasts for a number of years, and it provides bright light to illuminate an area for those years. Similarly, an NFL running back lasts for a number of years and puts up above-replacement-level fantasy points for those years.

There are two key variables then…. Brightness and lifespan or in the language of the RB position: efficiency and durability. These are the two biggest ingredients in running back success. Let’s use fantasy points per game as a proxy for efficiency and years/games played as a loose proxy for durability.

If I were to add a 3rd variable it would be opportunity but let’s leave that out for now and weave it into the narratives later on.

My website has undergone a bit of an overhaul in the last few months. Here’s the TLDR:

Superstar running backs are figuratively shining bright. The brightest a running back has ever shined in the modern NFL is to the tune of 30 or 31 points per game which is a feat only accomplished by Christian McCaffrey, prime LaDainian Tomlinson, and Priest Holmes.

That is positively blinding to onlookers and a cheat code for dynasty managers.

Let’s extend the analogy to look at RBs who finished at cutoff points in ppr points to get a sense of how bright these players are shining.

Bulbs and Runnigbacks don't fail at a constant rate. They fail on a bathtub curve there’s a spike of early failures ("infant mortality"), a long flat stretch where almost nothing goes wrong, and then wear-out at the end. Reliability engineers know this so well they burn in components on purpose: run them hard, let the weak ones die, and ship only the survivors.Here’s 3 prominent RBs who’s careers ended in one of these 3 phases.

Here are the stats for their careers given as fantasy points per game by career year.

Trent Richardson was the third overall pick and he had his last year of productivity in the NFL in year 3. He was bright for about eleven games and then the filament went as his efficiency dropped off a cliff.

Todd Gurley reached fantasy and NFL superstar status early in his career but his knee gave way and he exited the NFL at 26 years of age

Frank Gore had a legendary ironman streak of longevity at the position. While he never had a prime CMC/LT fantasy year; he had 16 years of productivity.

Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love are unlit bulbs. Nobody in your league knows how brightly they’ll burn in fantasy ppg, including you, including me. The distribution of outcomes is enormous; but you can make a bullish case that both will be RB1s 5 years from now.

Father time is undefeated and even Derrick Henry and Lebron James will (and have) begun to look human. But modern NFL training methods, nutrition, recovery and supplementation have changed the game. That middle period on the bathtub curve is being extended as we know it and because it’s unprecendented dynasty managers are slow to react. Don’t bet on productive dynasty rbs to be immortal but if you’re a contender I would think twice about liquidating your shares of 28+ RBs based on an age and wear down argument alone.

So let me sharpen the claim. I'm not saying Derrick Henry has more football left in him than a rookie does. He almost certainly doesn't.

I'm saying the following:

Keeptradecut can give us a pulse check on how the dynasty community is valuing RBs.

Acknowledge that Price is more valuable in dynasty and trade accordingly.

Henry's remaining lifespan is short, but the points he is expected to put up next year and the following year would require a Price breakout to match. The rookie's remaining lifespan is long in expectation only because we're averaging over a distribution that includes a lot of zeroes and you are being charged the price of the bullet bill for a box that mostly contains banana peels. If Price becomes a dynasty superstar that does not invalidate what I’m saying here; this is merely an observation that the market it out-of-whack with youthful unproven RBs.

The fallacy to avoid is that every year an elite running back's dynasty value diminishes just because he is another year older. This is not necessarily the case; if anything CMC, Henry and Saquon stay flat from a contender perspective. Steady performance is indicative that next year will still offer above average level fantasy points per game.

Contending teams pushing for a title should take the discount on Saquon, Derrick Henry, and CMC as sure-thing producers, rather than bet the farm on the pricier young guns who still have to prove they can endure and produce in this league.

You are not buying theoretical years of production with trades (especially as a contender). You should be buying fantasy points, at a discount, from someone who has confused old with dim. You can also sell high on young unproven players because of the market’s infatuation with them. Jeremiyah Love is an exception to this and he is fairly insulated by his historic draft capital and production profile… but shopping young year 1 and 2 backs like Price, Henderson, Skattebo, Judkins, Monangai might be worthwhile during this phase where you can still charge a premium. I’m not immune to my individual player biases but from a value perspective there are some gains to be made.

Hope you enjoyed this article! Let me know if this kind of content is preferred or if you have any other recommendations moving forward.

Stay Amped,

John

fantasyamp.com

PS: Do you know hard it was to write an article on lightbulbs and not make one AMP pun? Email me your best.