Dynasty RB Shakeup Part II

Neal has a 3 down ceiling and he projects as one of the more efficient backs in this year’s class. He was very productive at Kansas with 32 TDs over the last two years to go along with about 6 yards per carry on the ground. Analytically, Neal was not great at breaking tackles (outside top 50 at the position for yards after contact/attempt) and he was not particularly elusive either (outside the top 75 among qualified rbs). The hope for Neal is that he can overcome these short comings and secure a volume based role where he could slot in as a mid tier fantasy RB2. I think the mid second round is where you can expect Neal to head off the board in rookie drafts.

Sampson will rival Jeanty and Henderson as the most electric back in this year’s class. If he crushes the combine he will rise on team’s draft boards. He also had an impressive year by scoring 22 TDs this past year on nearly 6 yards per carry. Sampson was behind Jaylen Wright at Tennessee for his first 2 years and accordingly he only has one year of elite production. However despite his physical profile he was not elite at breaking tackles outside top 50 at the position for yards after contact/attempt) but he was elite at forcing missed tackles (11th in the country). Sampson would thrive in an offense that creates space and running lanes with motion(like Miami) but could see himself struggling in the wrong fit. Sampson has a high ceiling and I like him in the mid 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Smith is a WR to RB convert who is a dynamic athlete. He was by all accounts very impressive this year helping SMU to the college football playoff and he performed well in the Senior Bowl. It’s clear that his background in the receiving game gives him an edge running routes out of the backfield as he led all RBs in PFF Rec grade this year. The ascendance of lighter backs like Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving should help Smith’s case to earn carries in an NFL backfield. He is very much in that mold but I would argue that he’s more explosive than Kyren with about as much burst as Bucky. There are question marks regarding whether he can run between the tackles (he was outside the top 100 in yco/att) or if he will mainly be deployed in the pass game. For that reason Smith is likely a late 2nd round pick in rookie drafts with upside if he lands in a spread out offense.

Giddens is a fluid athlete who is fun to watch in the open field. He reminds me of JK Dobbins when he was coming out of OSU. Giddens has less of a nose for the endzone than others in this list as he only scored 7 TDs last year but he did average 6.5 yards per attempt on the ground. He slipped just inside the top 25 in yco/att and top 30 in elusiveness. Giddens has plus ability in the open field and with his adequate size, athleticism and pass catching ability (72 catches over the past 2 years) he has a real chance at being a 3 down back in the NFL. If the draft capital is there for Giddens I’d feel confident taking him in the late 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Jordan James was an efficient back on an elite Oregon offense. James replaced Bucky Irving for the Ducks and was efficient 90 + PFF rush grade with 5.5 YPC, but his underlying advanced analytics were quite bad. He was outside the top 100 in yco/att, and 88th in elusiveness. James still has the opportunity to be a proficient runner at the next level but it will likely be a case where needs a good situation and an injury or two to get on the field. Barring 2nd day draft capital the earliest I’d take a shot on James in round 3.

Ollie Gordon is a polarizing and unique prospect who has a wide range of outcomes. He had an incredible sophomore year at OSU where he had 2,062 yards from scrimmage ( 1732 rush | 330 rec). His junior year regression to 1,052 yards has caused strong reactions with him falling off some draft boards. Context matters, and the team around him this past year was poor as evidenced by the 3-9 record. The fact remains that Gordon is a unique prospect in the mold of a Derrick Henry physically and he has flashed productivity and the ability to catch the ball. For such a bigger back he is not a bruiser like Hampton or Damien Martinez. His yco/att and elusiveness in his dominant sophomore season of 51st & 83rd do not bode well for him analytically. I would still take a flier on Ollie at the end of the 3rd round in rookie drafts.